Group 1 - Modern Dairy is a pioneer in large-scale farming and is undergoing a digital transformation to enhance operational resilience through cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from capacity expansion to technology-driven high-quality development, optimizing cost structure and resource utilization [1] - The cyclical nature of raw milk prices is influenced by supply expansion or contraction and the time lag in dairy cow reproduction and lactation [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap in dairy products is expected to narrow, with raw milk prices likely to stabilize and recover in mid to late 2025 [2] - Modern Dairy's core business is raw milk, which is projected to generate revenue of 10.454 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 78.83% of total revenue [2] - The company has enhanced its vertical integration by launching feed and digital platform businesses to improve synergy within the industry chain [2] Group 3 - The productivity of dairy cows is improving, with an expected yield of 12.8 tons per head per year in 2024 [3] - Modern Dairy has strategically acquired FuYuan Dairy and ZhongYuan Dairy to achieve scale integration and diversify its operations across breeding, feed, deep processing, and digital platforms [3] - The company operates 47 dairy farms in China with over 490,000 dairy cows, focusing on core dairy farming regions, and has established quality forage bases in the U.S. [3] Group 4 - The tightening supply-demand gap in raw milk is expected to create investment opportunities, with profitability improvements anticipated in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company's projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are 0.01 yuan and 0.10 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of approximately 73 and 11 times, indicating significant upside potential [3]
现代牧业(1117.HK)：现代智牧 奶业长青