中国经济韧性与政策智慧不可小觑

Group 1: Economic Resilience - The report from Nomura Securities predicting a "cliff-like decline" in China's economy in the second half of the year is considered alarmist and underestimates the resilience of the Chinese economy and the positive effects of policies [1] - Consumer spending has shown strong growth in the first half of the year, with improvements in consumption and dining revenues, indicating robust consumer resilience [2] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support consumption, as previous implementations did not lead to significant declines in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented a long-term mechanism to boost consumption through measures aimed at increasing employment, income, and reducing living costs [2] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is seen as a necessary step for long-term healthy development in sectors like new energy [3] - The impact of tariffs on exports has been overstated, as China's export performance has remained strong despite previous trade tensions, showcasing the competitiveness of Chinese products [4] Group 3: Positive Policy Stance - The current policy stance is characterized by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies aimed at stabilizing growth [5] - The government has a diverse toolbox for economic stabilization, including infrastructure investment, social security spending, tax reductions, and structural adjustments [6] - While there may be marginal pressures on the economy in the second half, these do not alter the long-term positive trend, and the notion of a "cliff-like decline" is unfounded [6]