TSMC(US:TSM) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-07-18 02:23Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported record quarterly profits exceeding market expectations but warned of potential negative impacts on future revenue due to U.S. tariffs, which may not manifest until the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue for Q2 was NT$933.79 billion (approximately RMB 228.2 billion), a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - Net profit reached NT$398.3 billion (approximately RMB 97.1 billion), marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 60.7%, achieving double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter [1] - For Q3, TSMC expects sales to rise again, with annual revenue projected to grow approximately 30% in USD terms, up from a previous forecast of "close to 25%" [2] Group 2: Production and Investment - In Q2, TSMC's revenue breakdown by process technology showed 24% from 3nm, 36% from 5nm, 14% from 7nm, and 7% from 16/20nm and 28nm [2] - TSMC plans to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures this year, with a similar range set for 2025, which will include the construction or equipping of nine advanced factories [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Client Impact - TSMC's president noted that the approval for NVIDIA to resume sales of H20 AI chips to China is a positive development for both TSMC and its clients [1] - Concerns were raised regarding potential impacts on TSMC's earnings if major client Apple experiences disappointing sales, particularly in China [4] - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the U.S. Dollar (approximately 12% year-to-date) is expected to weaken profit margins, with Q3 gross margin projected to decline from 58.6% in Q2 to between 55.5% and 57.5% [2]