美国通胀远非表面上那么乐观？

Core Insights - The market may be underestimating the long-term inflation risks in the U.S., as highlighted by a recent Deutsche Bank report, which indicates that despite stable inflation expectation indicators, deeper analysis reveals that genuine concerns about future inflation are nearing a decade-high level [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - Key indicators for long-term inflation expectations, such as the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate and inflation swaps, have recently risen to near twelve-month highs, yet remain within a controlled range [1] - The apparent calm in inflation expectations is misleading, as a "risk premium" indicator, which reflects true inflation concerns after stripping out oil price volatility, has surged to its highest level since 2014 [2][5] Group 2: Oil Price Influence - The correlation between oil prices and long-term inflation expectation indicators is significant, with a reported 75-80% correlation since the mid-2014 oil price crash [2] - After removing the influence of oil prices, the residual inflation expectations have shown a notable increase, approaching the highest levels since late 2016 to early 2017 during the "Trump reflation trade" period [2] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Current inflation expectations are primarily driven by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration and ongoing challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - If the current administration follows through on its tariff and Federal Reserve policy threats, the existing risk premium could further escalate [5]