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茅台价格还会继续下探吗?

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with export versions dropping to as low as 1179 yuan, raising concerns about the overall health of the high-end liquor market and the potential for further declines in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 500ml 53-degree export version Moutai has fallen to 1179 yuan, while the non-export version is priced at 1430 yuan [1]. - On platforms like Pinduoduo and Taobao, promotional prices for two bottles of export version Moutai are around 3094 yuan (1547 yuan per bottle) [1]. - Since the 618 mid-year promotion, the price of non-export Moutai has been rising, while export prices have been declining, breaching the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall consumption situation for liquor is not optimistic, with a report indicating that the average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, and inventory levels up by 25% [3]. - Price inversion phenomena are affecting 60% of companies, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [3]. Group 3: Impact on Distributors - Distributors face significant challenges as the continuous price drop of Moutai could lead to substantial losses, especially since their procurement costs are around 1800 yuan per bottle [4]. - There is a risk of panic selling among distributors, reminiscent of the price drop from 2000 yuan to 800 yuan during the 2012-2014 adjustment period [4]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices reflects a broader trend where financial attributes are diminishing, returning to consumer-driven demand [6]. - The high terminal prices in the past were largely due to speculation, and the current price drop is seen as a correction of inflated values [6]. - The industry is questioning when this adjustment will reach its bottom and whether Moutai should intervene to stabilize the market [6].