印尼效仿中国赌镍价，从6%飙到74%，终难逃亡崩盘结局

Core Insights - Indonesia experienced a complete economic bubble cycle in just four years, with its global nickel market share soaring from 6% to 74%, ultimately leading to a collapse [1][4] Group 1: Indonesia's Nickel Industry Growth - In 2020, Indonesia, holding 60% of global nickel reserves, banned nickel ore exports to attract global manufacturers, technology, and capital [3] - The rapid expansion of Indonesia's refined nickel market share from 6% to 74% was characterized as "madness," generating over $30 billion in annual export revenue [4] - Indonesia's annual nickel production reached 2.2 million tons, with an additional 1.5 million tons of smelting capacity under construction, leading to an oversupply situation [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Decline - The imbalance in supply and demand resulted in a significant drop in nickel prices, currently around $14,000 per ton, nearing the cost line for many Indonesian smelters [7] - The once-thriving nickel smelting industry in Indonesia is now facing layoffs and production halts due to the price collapse [7] Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China's demand for nickel has shifted due to changes in electric vehicle battery technology, with a growing preference for lithium iron phosphate batteries that require less nickel [9] - During the price drop, China strategically accumulated high-quality primary nickel as a reserve, showcasing its proactive approach in the supply chain [11] - Chinese companies have advanced recycling technologies, allowing over 95% of nickel to be extracted from waste, reducing reliance on new mines [12] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Challenges - Indonesian smelting plants are still using coal-fired furnaces, resulting in high carbon emissions, which poses significant environmental challenges [13] - The experiences of Indonesia highlight that resource ownership does not equate to control over the supply chain; technological capabilities are crucial for success [15][20] Group 5: Lessons for Other Nations - Other countries attempting to replicate China's model, like Vietnam and Australia, face challenges due to a lack of mature refining technologies, leading to continued dependence on China [14] - The global competition has shifted from resource acquisition to technological ecosystems and supply chain resilience, as illustrated by Indonesia's nickel price collapse [19]