Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on "music community + technology empowerment" to build a differentiated advantage in the online music platform, actively expanding quality music content resources in the post-copyright era, targeting the younger demographic, and optimizing membership rights, leading to continuous growth in membership scale, with a strong recommendation rating given for initial coverage [1][4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The online music service revenue is expected to grow by 23.1% year-on-year to 5.355 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 67.35% of total revenue, driven by membership service optimization and rich content [2]. - Membership subscription revenue increased by 22.2% year-on-year to 4.459 billion yuan, with the number of paid users reaching 44.12 million by the end of 2023, and the average revenue per paid user per month at 6.9 yuan [2]. - The company has been expanding channels and improving the membership system, including a strategic partnership with Alibaba's 88VIP to integrate music with e-commerce [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - The company employs a "copyright procurement + original incubation" dual system to expand quality music content, boasting a library of 150 million licensed songs and 770,000 independent musicians, with 350 billion plays of original music [3]. - The platform emphasizes the music community concept, creating a social ecosystem that enhances emotional engagement, with over one million UGC comments generated daily and a stable daily-to-monthly active user ratio above 30% [3]. - Compared to industry leaders, the company shows excellent growth in payment rates, but the ARPPU value remains significantly lower than the industry average, indicating substantial potential for user value enhancement [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the drive of innovative technologies like AI and continuous optimization of membership rights, the company is expected to achieve further increases in payment rates and ARPU values [4]. - Projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are expected to reach 8.237 billion, 8.832 billion, and 9.663 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.923 billion, 2.222 billion, and 2.459 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 30, 26, and 24 times [4].
网易云音乐(9899.HK)：社区生态护城河稳固 付费指标上升空间充足