CSEC,China Shenhua(HK:01088) Ge Long Hui·2025-07-19 11:26Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (01088) shows a moderate increase in stock price, indicating cautious market sentiment among investors [1] Technical Analysis - As of July 18, the stock price is at HKD 32.25, with a rise of 1.25%. The price is above the 10-day moving average (MA10) of HKD 31.54 but fluctuates near the 30-day (MA30) at HKD 32.71 and 60-day (MA60) at HKD 32.22, suggesting a consolidation pattern [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a neutral zone, while a 5-day volatility of 5.3% reflects cautious trading behavior [1] - Key support is at HKD 31.1; if breached, it may drop to HKD 30.6. Resistance is at HKD 33.6, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge at HKD 34.7 [1] - Technical indicators show mixed signals: MACD indicates a buy signal, while momentum oscillators suggest a sell signal, indicating an imminent market direction choice [1] - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 54%, with the bull-bear power indicator turning to a buy signal, providing some hope for future performance [1] Derivative Instruments - For investors optimistic about China Shenhua's future, the Morgan Stanley call option (16502) is noteworthy, offering a leverage of 4.7 times with a strike price of HKD 36.6 and the lowest implied volatility in its category [3] - The Bank of China call option (16929) has a strike price of HKD 42.93 and a leverage of 5.8 times. UBS and Morgan Stanley bull certificates provide a leverage of 5.9 times, with redemption prices set at HKD 27 and HKD 27.2, suitable for risk-tolerant investors [3] - For cautious investors, the UBS bear certificate (53197) offers a leverage of 5.9 times with a redemption price of HKD 37, appropriate for those anticipating a potential pullback in China Shenhua's stock [3]