美债破5% VS 标普6300点！现在还能配啥？三路布局思路分享！

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, marking a new high since early June, while the S&P 500 index approaches historical peaks, indicating a complex balance between the bond and stock markets [1][4] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to surpass $800 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, exceeding military spending [4][6] - Recent inflation data shows a 2.7% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with prices of tariff-sensitive goods rising, reflecting the impact of previous tariff policies [4][6] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high of 6302 points, driven by the "Big and Beautiful" tax cuts that significantly boosted corporate earnings, particularly for major tech companies [7][8] - Market participants exhibit a selective blindness to policy risks, believing that any economic damage from tariffs will be quickly reversed due to political needs [8][11] - The volatility index (VIX) remains low, indicating a lack of fear regarding policy changes, as liquidity continues to support market optimism despite high national debt levels [11][12] Group 3 - The rise in long-term Treasury yields above 5% suggests higher borrowing costs, impacting everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond issuance, and reflects concerns over inflation and prolonged high interest rates [12][13] - Investment strategies are shifting towards tactical opportunities in U.S. high-yield bonds, which are currently in demand due to a structural supply shortage [12][13] - The upcoming earnings season for the S&P 500 is expected to show a significant slowdown in profit growth, with second-quarter earnings projected to increase by only 5%, down from 13% in the previous quarter [13][14] Group 4 - Gold is positioned as a hedge against potential economic instability, with rising ETF holdings indicating a growing preference for gold as a safeguard against debt monetization [14][16] - The market is characterized by oscillations between euphoria and fear, emphasizing the need for investors to maintain a robust defensive strategy in their portfolios [14][16]