Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15%-20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth due to a high base in the first half of 2024, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 15%-20% for 1H25, with the konjac product category maintaining high growth [1] - Adjustments in SKU displays for seasoning noodle products may lead to growth pressure in Q2 [1] - Increased promotional efforts in the channel for 1H25 may offset revenue growth, impacting overall revenue growth rate [1] Group 2: Margin and Cost Management - The company expects an improvement in gross margin compared to 2H24, with management expense ratio likely to narrow year-on-year [1] - The company plans to counteract rising konjac raw material costs through supply chain efficiency and optimization of production personnel [1] - Overall, the pressure on net profit margin is expected to be manageable, with a projected low double-digit year-on-year profit growth for 1H25 [1] Group 3: Organizational Structure and Management Changes - The company has a complete organizational structure, and recent executive changes are expected to have a controllable impact on operations [2] - The new CFO, Yufeng, is expected to maintain stability following the resignation of the previous CFO, Peng Hongzhi [2] Group 4: Market Expansion and New Products - The company anticipates new growth from Sam's Club and overseas channels in the second half of the year [2] - New product launches, including spicy strips and konjac products, are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2] - The company expects to maintain a growth rate in the second half of the year similar to that of 1H25, with significant profit improvement due to a low base in 2H24 [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 17.5 [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20.2/16.4 for 2025/2026, with a target price reflecting approximately 28/23 times P/E for the same years, indicating a potential upside of about 38.7% from the current price [2]
卫龙美味(09985.HK)：我们预计1H25收入端有望保持较快增长 利润端由于成本压力及高基数同比增速慢于收入