Buy: Key takeaways from company visit 2H25 outlook. Due to high prices of konjak mannan, Weilong's gross margin narrowed by 2.6ppt y-o-y to 47.2% in 1H25. Despite the recent slight correction in konjak mannan prices, the company expects gross margin to stay stable compared to 1H25 due to increased quantity of konjac products without increasing prices, and the festive promotion for the new year in 4Q25. Operating expenses ratio may go up in 2H25 due to higher marketing expenses for the konjac market. Overall ...

食品饮料 2025 年 10 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒动销承压分化，饮料零食凸显 韧性—行业周报》-2025.10.12 《白酒临近底部，大众品聚焦产业红 利—行业周报》-2025.9.28 《社零降速，食饮分化—行业周报》 -2025.9.21 白酒筑底，加强布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：业绩估值双底到来，建议底部周期加强布局 10 月 13 日-10 月 17 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.9%，一级子行业排名第 3，跑赢 沪深 300 约 3.1pct，子行业中其他酒类（+3.6%）、保健品（+2.1%）、白酒（+1.8%） 表现相对领先。本周受到国际贸易冲突影响，市场风格切换，食品饮料防御属性 凸显，指数跑赢大盘。本周 2025 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline in new consumption concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Wei Long Mei Wei (卫龙美味) fell by 6.72%, with a latest price of 12.220 and a market capitalization of 29.709 billion [2]. - Bluestone (布鲁可) decreased by 5.91%, priced at 97.950, with a total market value of 24.37 billion [2]. - Naixue's Tea (奈雪的茶) dropped by 5.65%, trading at 1.170, and has a market cap of 1.995 billion [2]. - Hu Shang A Yi (沪上阿姨) saw a decline of 5.57%, with a price of 111.900 and a market capitalization of 11.772 billion [2]. - Miniso (名创优品) decreased by 5.51%, priced at 41.880, with a total market value of 51.164 billion [2]. - Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) fell by 5.14%, trading at 273.400, with a market cap of 367.161 billion [2]. - XPeng Motors (小鹏汽车-W) decreased by 4.77%, with a latest price of 78.850 and a market capitalization of 150.328 billion [2]. - Mixue Group (密雪集团) dropped by 4.68%, priced at 423.400, with a market cap of 160.731 billion [2]. - Gu Ming (古茗) saw a decline of 4.66%, trading at 24.120, with a total market value of 57.362 billion [2]. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) decreased by 4.74%, with a price of 95.550 and a market capitalization of 38.039 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Weilong Delicious (09985) with a "Buy" rating, citing a favorable risk-reward profile after a 30% price correction since April [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Weilong Delicious is a well-known Chinese snack company with a strong national presence in the seasoning noodle and konjac product sectors [1] - The company holds a dominant market position in the konjac food segment, expected to contribute over 60% of sales by 2025, with a current market share of 42% [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for Weilong's earnings from 2025 to 2027, compared to 3% for its closest global peer, Calbee [1] - The projected sales and net profit CAGR for Weilong from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 11% and 13%, respectively [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report acknowledges increasing competition in the konjac product market but highlights several factors supporting Weilong's growth: 1. Smaller competitors are more vulnerable to cost increases and pricing pressures [2] 2. Weilong's first-mover advantage allows it to adapt to competitive pressures due to its national coverage and resources [2] 3. The company's brand image and market insights provide opportunities for consumer penetration, channel expansion, and product variety [2] Group 4: Profitability Outlook - Efforts to optimize automation, increase capacity utilization, and leverage operational efficiencies are expected to enhance Weilong's net profit margin from 18.9% in 2025 to 19.5% in 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Wei Long Delicious (09985) with a buy rating, citing a favorable risk-reward profile after a 30% price correction since April [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Wei Long Delicious is a well-known Chinese snack company with a strong national presence in the seasoning noodle and konjac product sectors [1] - The company holds a dominant market position in the konjac food segment, expected to contribute over 60% of sales by 2025, with a current market share of 42% [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for the company's earnings from 2025 to 2027, compared to 3% for its closest global peer, Calbee [1] - The expected CAGR for sales and net profit is projected at 11% and 13%, respectively, for the same period [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report acknowledges increasing competition in the konjac product market but highlights several factors supporting Wei Long's growth: 1. Smaller competitors are more vulnerable to cost increases and pricing pressures due to scale disadvantages [2] 2. Wei Long's first-mover advantage allows it to adapt to competitive pressures through national coverage and resources [2] 3. The company's brand image and market insights provide opportunities for consumer penetration, channel expansion, and product variety [2] Group 4: Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to improve its net profit margin from 18.9% in 2025 to 19.5% in 2027, driven by automation, increased capacity utilization, operational leverage, and favorable raw material costs [2]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，25年秋糖参展企业、活动与投资者数量同比下滑，热度再度 下降。白酒行业双节旺季动销符合预期，产业侧逐步接受现状，更多企业主动/被动开始出清，烟酒店 及社会库存降至低位，25Q3酒企报表侧出清和26年春节旺季需求与批价情况将是重要验证指标。食品 行业景气分化，饮料板块长假去库存效果明显，农夫、东鹏延续强势。零食板块量贩门店数量拓展仍有 空间，渠道继续贡献增量。 招商证券主要观点如下： 食品板块景气分化，继续关注成长赛道与需求环比修复 饮料板块双节期间部分地区气温偏高带来利好，长假去库存效果明显。头部品牌中农夫预计双位数增 长，瓶装水份额继续提升；东鹏整体表现较优，特饮、补水啦提供坚实支撑，果汁茶关注26年公司动 作；怡宝25年下滑幅度好于表观，关注竞争格局变化下的改善机会。零食板块25年零食量贩头部品牌新 增门店多以"省钱超市"为主，替代便利店与小型超市，同店表现同比下滑约中个位数，但后续门店数量 拓展仍有空间。乳制品板块双节期间常温液奶依然承压，产品结构下移。 投资建议：白酒延续调整，食品景气分化 25年秋糖热度再度降低，酒企参展企业减少、费投更倾向C端、酒商观望情绪较 ...

卫龙美味(09985)再涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.53%，报13.55港元，成交额4440.98万港元。 西部证券续指，渠道端，卫龙美味基本实现全渠道覆盖，经过多轮迭代后，目前形成"辅销+助销"的渠 道模式，协助经销商共同成长。从网点覆盖盖广度和终端掌控力来看，卫龙在零食行业中都属于头部水 平，渠道有效赋能新品推广。 消息面上，招商证券指出，卫龙9月整体增速20%以上、魔芋产品增长良好、辣条产品基本止滑。西部 证券认为，卫龙美味魔芋产品在快速增长阶段，香辣、麻辣、酸辣等经典口味魔芋在终端持续渗透，麻 酱新口味销售快速爬坡，单品天花板有望超预期。利润端，魔芋精粉成本压力最大阶段已经过去，25- 27年有望进入成本下行周期。 智通财经APP获悉，卫龙美味(09985)再涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.53%，报13.55港元，成交额4440.98万 港元。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.43%, down 111 points, closing at 25,799 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.36% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 156.2 billion in the morning session [1] Group 2: Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals - HEC Pharm (02617) experienced a short-term surge, rising by 42% with a trading volume exceeding HKD 1.1 billion [1] - Rongchang Bio (09995) rose over 5% following the publication of its Phase III clinical trial results for Taitasip in treating systemic lupus erythematosus in NEJM [2] - Baixin An-B (02185) increased by over 10%, with institutions indicating that its commercialization is set to accelerate [5] Group 3: Telecommunications and Technology - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw a peak increase of 7%, with its stock price up over 80% year-to-date, as the company strengthens its research and development in intelligent computing products [3] Group 4: Aviation Sector - Major airlines in Hong Kong reported strong operational data for September, indicating a potential sustained recovery in the industry, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 4.9% and China Southern Airlines (01055) up 2% [3] Group 5: Consumer Sector - New consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong collectively rose, with Lao Pu Gold (06181) up 6%, Wei Long (09985) up 3%, Pop Mart (09992) up over 5%, and Guoquan (02517) up over 3% [3] Group 6: Education Sector - Education stocks in Hong Kong surged, with Think Tank Education (01769) leading with an increase of over 18%, and New Oriental-S (09901) rising over 6% [4] Group 7: Energy Sector - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) rose over 4% due to strong demand in the crude oil tanker market in September, with VLCC freight rates expected to strengthen [6] Group 8: Market Volatility - Bit Strategy (06113) fell over 9% after being named by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for having highly concentrated shareholding [7] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) declined by 3%, with institutions noting that its stock price volatility is influenced by multiple news events and market rumors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rally in new consumption concept stocks on October 16, with multiple companies experiencing notable gains [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Lao Pu Gold increased by over 7% [1] - Wei Long Delicious and Pop Mart both rose by over 6% [1] - Guo Quan saw a rise of over 5% [1] - Mi Xue Group experienced a 3% increase [1] - Gu Ming rose nearly 3% [1]

西部证券续指，渠道端，卫龙美味基本实现全渠道覆盖，经过多轮迭代后，目前形成"辅销+助销"的渠 道模式，协助经销商共同成长。从网点覆盖盖广度和终端掌控力来看，卫龙在零食行业中都属于头部水 平，渠道有效赋能新品推广。 卫龙美味(09985)再涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.53%，报13.55港元，成交额4440.98万港元。 消息面上，招商证券指出，卫龙9月整体增速20%以上、魔芋产品增长良好、辣条产品基本止滑。西部 证券认为，卫龙美味魔芋产品在快速增长阶段，香辣、麻辣、酸辣等经典口味魔芋在终端持续渗透，麻 酱新口味销售快速爬坡，单品天花板有望超预期。利润端，魔芋精粉成本压力最大阶段已经过去，25- 27年有望进入成本下行周期。 ...