机构：中金公司 研究员：王文丹/武雨欣/陈文博 我们预计1H25 收入同比增速15%-20%区间，利润增速略低于收入增速我们预计1H25 收入同比增速 15%-20%区间，利润增速略低于收入增速（1H24 利润率高基数），符合市场预期。 关注要点 公司组织架构完整，高管调整对公司经营影响可控。据公告，近期彭宏志先生因个人职业发展安排，已 辞任执行董事、首席财务官职务。余风先生将先接任CFO职务。公司组织架构完整，我们预计高管调整 影响可控。 展望：下半年公司在山姆、海外渠道有望贡献新增量，另外辣条和魔芋新口味产品仍有铺货空间。新渠 道：7 月初公司在山姆渠道新品上新（卫龙高纤牛肝菌魔芋800g，零售价格为49.9 元），下半年海外市 场有望进一步放量。新产品：我们预计下半年辣条（小龙虾口味）以及魔芋爽（麻酱口味）将增加铺 货，另外臭豆腐等新品有望贡献增量。综合来看，我们预计下半年增速有望仍保持与1H25 相近的增 速，下半年利润端因2H24 基数低我们预计同比将明显改善。 盈利预测与估值 我们基本维持2025 年和2026 年利润预测。我们保持目标价17.5 港币，当前股价对应25/26 年20.2/16.4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential domestic policy adjustments and a recovery in consumer demand in the second half of the year [3][4] - The report suggests strategic positioning in leading liquor companies due to their low valuation and favorable market conditions [3][6] - The snack food segment shows strong growth potential, driven by product innovation and emerging sales channels [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with June 2025 retail sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [4][8] - The report notes that the decline in consumer spending on dining and discretionary items has impacted overall sales performance [4][5] Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with consumption scenarios limited by recent policy changes and promotional activities affecting pricing [6] - The report recommends focusing on top liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu for potential investment opportunities [3][6] Snack Food Sector - The snack food segment, particularly products like konjac, is experiencing robust growth due to health trends and diverse flavor offerings [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying quality companies in the snack food sector that align with industry development trends for long-term investment [3][6]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a volatile pullback [1] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) has seen a decline of over 5% [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) has dropped nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Wei Long (09985.HK) has decreased by more than 2% [1] - Mao Ge Ping (01318.HK) and Miniso (09896.HK) both fell by over 1.5% [1]

Group 1 - The CEO and CFO of Weilong have resigned within four months, with CFO Peng Hongzhi's resignation effective from August 31, 2025, and Yu Feng appointed as the new CFO [1][4] - Peng Hongzhi has been with Weilong for 15 years, with a total compensation of approximately 18.22 million RMB for 2024, including salary, bonuses, and other benefits [2][3] - The stock price of Weilong dropped nearly 13% following the announcement of the management changes, closing at 12.62 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 30.681 billion HKD [4] Group 2 - The management changes reflect a consolidation of family control within the company, as the chairman and vice-chairman are brothers, and other key executives are also family members [7] - Since 2020, Weilong's revenue and annual profit have been on the rise, with 2024 revenue exceeding 6 billion RMB and annual profit surpassing 1 billion RMB, although challenges remain [7][8] - The revenue from seasoned flour products, a core product, decreased from 52.3% of total revenue in 2023 to 42.6% in 2024, while vegetable products increased from 43.5% to 53.8% [8][9] Group 3 - The flagship product, konjac snacks, has gained popularity but faces intense competition from other brands, leading to a saturated market [10] - A recent quality issue regarding the konjac product went viral, prompting the company to apologize and commit to improving quality control [10] - The return of the founding family to key positions may ensure strategic direction but raises concerns about corporate governance and transparency [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent executive changes at Weilong Delicious (09985.HK) indicate a shift back to family leadership, with the appointment of Yu Feng as CFO following the resignation of Peng Hongzhi, amidst a backdrop of significant company growth in revenue and profit [1][3]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Peng Hongzhi resigned as CFO for personal career development, effective September 1, with Yu Feng taking over the role [1]. - Yu Feng has over 14 years of experience in the snack food industry and has held various significant positions within the company since joining in 2011 [2]. - This marks the second executive change at Weilong Delicious in the first half of the year, following the resignation of CEO Sun Yinan in March [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Weilong Delicious reported a revenue increase of 28.6% to 6.266 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 21.3% to 1.068 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share of approximately 0.46 yuan [3]. - The board proposed a final dividend of 0.11 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.18 yuan per share, totaling approximately 423 million yuan in special dividends [3]. Group 3: Market Reaction - As of July 11, Weilong Delicious shares closed at 12.560 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 0.48% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent resignation of the CFO of Weilong, following the earlier departure of the CEO, indicates a significant shift in the company's leadership structure, which may reflect strategic concerns and a desire to stabilize management amidst challenges in the market [1][2][7]. Group 1: Executive Changes - CFO Peng Hongzhi has resigned due to personal career development plans, effective immediately [2]. - Yu Feng, currently an executive director, will take over as CFO starting September 1, 2023, bringing over 14 years of experience in the snack food industry [4]. - This marks the second high-level executive change at Weilong in the first half of the year, following the resignation of CEO Sun Yinong in March [4]. Group 2: Company Background and Family Ties - Weilong is a family-run business, with significant familial relationships among its executives, which may influence management dynamics [4]. - Peng Hongzhi is a cousin of Liu Zhongsi, while Yu Feng is a cousin of Liu Fuping, the new CEO, indicating a strong family presence in key positions [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Weilong's latest financial report shows a revenue increase of 28.6% year-on-year to 6.266 billion yuan, with a profit increase of 21.1% to 1.068 billion yuan [8]. - Adjusted net profit rose by 13.8% to 1.104 billion yuan, and the gross margin slightly increased from 47.7% in 2023 to 48.1% [8]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The company faces challenges such as declining sales of its core product, spicy strips, and increasing competition from imitators [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent personnel changes may be aimed at enhancing the company's stock value [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wei Long Delicious Global Holdings Ltd is experiencing significant management changes, with both the CEO and CFO resigning in a short period, which may impact investor confidence and company operations [1][10][12]. Management Changes - CFO Peng Hongzhi has resigned for personal career development reasons, effective from August 31, 2025 [1][5]. - Yu Feng, currently an executive director, will take over as CFO starting September 1, 2025 [4]. - CEO Sun Yinong resigned due to personal matters, with his departure effective from April 30, 2025, and he will continue as an advisor [10][12]. Company Background - Wei Long Delicious was established in March 2021 in the Cayman Islands and is headquartered in Luohe, Henan Province. The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2022 [8]. - The company specializes in various food products, including flavored noodle products, vegetable products, and bean products [8]. Financial Performance - As of July 10, the company's stock price was HKD 12.62, reflecting a decline of 12.97%, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 30.681 billion [13][14]. - The company reported an earnings per share of 0.47 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.00 [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent management changes at Weilong Delicious, including the resignation of CFO Peng Hongzhi and the appointment of Yu Feng, reflect potential challenges the company faces in product and market areas [2][3][4] Management Changes - CFO Peng Hongzhi will resign on August 31, with Executive Director Yu Feng taking over from September 1 [3] - This marks the second management change within six months, following the appointment of a new CEO in April [3] - The current executive directors are all members of the Liu family, indicating a strong family control over the company [3] Industry Challenges - The snack food industry is becoming increasingly competitive, prompting the Liu family to regain control of key positions to ensure consistent strategic direction [4] - The traditional "spicy strips" product line is losing popularity among mainstream consumers due to health concerns, impacting sales [5][7] - Sales of spicy strips have declined from 193,600 tons in 2021 to 124,400 tons in 2023 [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Weilong Delicious reported revenue of 6.266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.63%, and a net profit of 1.069 billion yuan, up 21.37% [6] - Revenue from vegetable products reached 3.371 billion yuan, growing 59.1% and surpassing the revenue from spicy strips [6] Product Development - The company is shifting towards healthier product offerings, increasing the sales of vegetable products like konjac snacks [6][7] - However, the konjac products have faced quality control issues, leading to consumer complaints [7] - The market for konjac snacks is becoming crowded, with competitors like Salted Fish and Three Squirrels entering the space [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent executive changes at Wei Long, including the resignation of CFO Peng Hongzhi and the appointment of Yu Feng as the new CFO, indicate a significant shift in the company's leadership structure, which may impact its operational continuity and strategic direction [2] Financial Performance - Wei Long reported a revenue of 6.266 billion RMB for 2024, representing a 28.6% increase from 4.872 billion RMB in the previous year [3] - The gross profit for 2024 was 3.016 billion RMB, up 29.9% from 2.323 billion RMB in 2023, with a gross margin of 48.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating profit for 2024 reached 1.4 billion RMB, a 27% increase from 1.1 billion RMB in 2023 [4] - The net profit for the year was 1.068 billion RMB, reflecting a 21.3% growth compared to 880.354 million RMB in the previous year [4] Leadership Changes - CFO Peng Hongzhi will resign effective August 31, 2025, and Yu Feng will take over as CFO and authorized representative starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The previous CEO, Sun Yinan, resigned in March 2025, with core shareholder Liu Fuping appointed as the new CEO effective April 30, 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates a stabilization in food and beverage demand, with signs of recovery becoming increasingly clear [1] - The core conclusion emphasizes a transition between old and new market dynamics, prioritizing market share [4] Industry Review - The food and beverage industry faced pressure in Q2 due to seasonal consumption declines and policy impacts, with significant differentiation among segments. Notably, the liquor and beer sectors were most affected, while beverages and snacks continued to show good growth [6] - Alcoholic beverages, particularly high-end liquor, are undergoing adjustments due to policy changes, while lower-alcohol options are experiencing growth. The report suggests monitoring long-term trading opportunities in the liquor sector [6][12] - The beverage sector remains robust, with double-digit growth expected in categories like electrolyte water and coconut water. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of a coconut water brand, projecting an 80% revenue growth for 2024 [6] - The snack industry is transitioning from channel expansion to category-driven growth, with strong momentum expected to continue into 2026 [6] - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing weak demand, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in basic condiments and frozen prepared foods [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, with specific stock picks including Guizhou Moutai and Yanjing Beer [6] - It suggests selecting strong individual stocks with clear market share gains or strong earnings certainty, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6] - High dividend yields are highlighted as a significant safety net in the current weak market environment, with Chongqing Beer being a notable example [6] Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor index has underperformed the broader market, with a 12% decline year-to-date, primarily due to weakening consumer demand and increased competition [12] - The report notes that the performance of individual liquor stocks has diverged, with some brands gaining market share while others struggle [13] - Guizhou Moutai's price has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop exceeding 20%, impacting overall sector valuations [12][19] Profitability Forecasts - The report anticipates that many companies will struggle to meet their growth targets in 2025, with a general downward revision of revenue growth expectations [44] - It highlights that the external environment remains uncertain, putting pressure on demand, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and sales promotion [45]