从年赚80亿元到单季亏3亿元，“疫苗代理王”智飞生物遭遇存货危机

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, is facing a severe financial crisis, with its stock price plummeting to historical lows and significant declines in revenue and profit projections for 2024 and 2025 [2][3][18] Financial Performance - As of July 22, the stock price closed at 20.35 yuan per share, significantly lower than its peak [2] - The company's revenue for 2023 was 529.18 billion yuan, but it is projected to drop to 260.70 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 50.7% [5] - Net profit is expected to fall by 74.99% from 80.70 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.18 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a loss of 3.05 billion yuan, marking its first quarterly loss in 15 years [7] Debt and Cash Flow - By Q1 2025, the company had only 30.69 billion yuan in cash against short-term debts of 147 billion yuan [4][16] - Operating cash flow is projected to turn negative at -44.14 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 149.6% year-on-year [4] - Financial expenses surged to 66.27 million yuan in Q1 2025, more than ten times the amount from the same period in 2024 [16] Inventory Issues - The company is experiencing a significant inventory buildup, with stock increasing from 90 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 222.18 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [9] - The majority of this inventory consists of HPV vaccines, which have a shelf life of only 36 months, raising concerns about potential write-downs [11][12] Business Model Challenges - The company's reliance on a代理模式 (agency model) for over 90% of its revenue has become unsustainable, particularly after a 52.46% drop in revenue from agency products in 2024 [9] - The core product, the four-valent HPV vaccine, saw a staggering 95.49% decline in batch issuance [9] - The company is struggling to adapt to market saturation and competition, particularly in the HPV vaccine segment [8] Attempts at Diversification - Zhifei Biological has attempted to diversify its product offerings, including a partnership with GSK for a shingles vaccine and an investment in GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes medications [13][14] - However, these efforts face stiff competition and have not yet yielded commercially viable products [13][14] Research and Development - The company has made limited progress in its自主研发 (independent research and development) efforts, with revenue from self-developed products dropping 68.70% in 2023 [14] - Although there was a slight increase of 14.93% in 2024, self-developed products still only accounted for 4.53% of total revenue [15] Future Outlook - The company is under pressure to restructure its business model, enhance innovation capabilities, and manage inventory and debt effectively to navigate its current challenges [18]