KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-23 03:35Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has plummeted due to a supply-demand imbalance, leading to significant economic pressure on distributors and a broader industry shock [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The wholesale price of 43-degree Moutai has dropped to 750 yuan, below the cost for some distributors, causing financial strain [1]. - Social inventory of Moutai exceeds 120 million bottles, accounting for 73% of annual production, with turnover days surpassing 900 [3]. - Demand has shrunk significantly, with high-end liquor no longer being a staple for business socializing, leading to a 30% drop in sales for upscale restaurants [4]. Price Trends and Financial Impact - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has decreased over 20% from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1870 yuan [1][4]. - Distributors are facing losses, with the cost of 53-degree Moutai exceeding 1800 yuan while selling for only 1870 yuan, resulting in a loss of nearly 550 yuan per bottle sold [6]. - Approximately 30% of small distributors are at risk of closing due to the ongoing price war and financial pressures [8]. Distributor Strategies and Market Adjustments - Distributors are adapting by shifting to live-stream sales and introducing lower-priced liquor options to attract younger consumers [6]. - Moutai Group is attempting to stabilize prices by repurchasing shares and reducing the allocation of Moutai to manage inventory [7]. - The company is also adjusting its product line to target the mid-range market, positioning Moutai 1935 and series liquors in the 300-500 yuan price range [7].