美国电动汽车“缺血”，根源居然关联到中国

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% to 102.72% on active anode materials (AAM) imported from China, which could lead to an effective tariff rate of up to 160% on graphite products [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Supply Chain - The new tariffs will significantly affect the supply chain for the global automotive industry, particularly for companies like Tesla, which rely heavily on Chinese graphite for battery production [5][8]. - Tesla has indicated that U.S. domestic graphite production currently cannot meet the quality and purity standards required for its batteries, leading to increased costs and potential supply chain disruptions [5][15]. - The International Energy Agency has identified graphite as a high-risk material in the supply chain, emphasizing the need for diversification [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The new tariffs are expected to impact approximately $340 million worth of imported graphite products, based on 2023 import volumes [4]. - The tariffs could increase the cost of battery cells by about $7 per kilowatt-hour, potentially erasing 1-2 quarters of profit for Korean battery manufacturers [5][8]. - Tesla's reliance on Chinese graphite is substantial, with projections indicating that it will indirectly procure around 80,000 tons of Chinese graphite in 2024, accounting for 67% of China's graphite exports to the U.S. [13][15]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The global demand for graphite is projected to reach 16.02 million tons by 2040, quadrupling from 2021 levels, driven by the electric vehicle industry's transition to low-carbon manufacturing [11]. - Other countries like Canada, Madagascar, and Brazil have graphite resources, but they lack the processing capabilities that China possesses, which controls the entire supply chain from raw material purification to high-temperature graphitization [11][10]. - The U.S. has initiated actions to reduce dependence on Chinese graphite, but domestic production capabilities are currently insufficient to meet demand [10][15].