Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-23 06:28Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the U.S. basic tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with a 50% tariff on copper and key minerals, potentially exacerbating inflation and pressuring economic growth [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions, indicating that tariffs will raise core inflation by 1.7% over 2-3 years [2] - The firm now forecasts a core inflation rate of 3.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.4%, and anticipates GDP growth of 1% for 2025, impacted by tariffs [2] Group 2 - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan setting tariffs on imported goods at 15%, including automobiles, which are a major component of the trade deficit [3] - A separate agreement with the Philippines sets a tariff rate of 19%, similar to that agreed with Indonesia, indicating a trend of lower tariffs in Southeast Asia compared to Vietnam's 20% benchmark [3] - Trump praised the trade agreements as significant victories, claiming the deal with Japan is potentially the largest trade agreement in history [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expects the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to rise by 16 percentage points this year, indicating a slight upward risk to inflation and a slight downward risk to growth [4]