AI predicts Tesla stock price after Q2 earnings report

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating Tesla's Q2 earnings report, with an AI model projecting limited upside for the stock amid declining sales and increasing competition [1][6]. Financial Performance - Tesla is expected to report Q2 revenue of $22.79 billion, a 9% decline from $25.05 billion year-over-year [2]. - Analysts forecast adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion [2]. - Global vehicle deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year to 384,122 units in Q2 [2]. Stock Performance - Despite challenges, Tesla shares have shown resilience, maintaining a position above $300, with TSLA up 1% at $332, though down 12% year-to-date [3]. - AI predictions suggest Tesla stock is likely to remain above $300 following the earnings release [5]. Market Sentiment - Weakening sentiment around Tesla is noted, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's political activities, which may alienate some consumers [6]. - Rising inventory levels pose risks to margins and cash flow, following the production of more vehicles than were delivered in Q2 [6]. Future Outlook - Without a strong earnings beat, a clear roadmap for the robotaxi program, or an affordable EV like the Model 2, the outlook remains cautious [7]. - At 38x forward earnings, much of Tesla's future growth appears priced in [7]. Price Predictions - The AI model assigns the highest probability to a muted outcome, with earnings in line with expectations leading to a modest pullback in stock to the $315-$325 range [8]. - In a bullish scenario, where Tesla beats revenue and earnings forecasts and announces a credible robotaxi timeline, shares could rally toward $350-$370 [9]. - Conversely, a miss paired with vague forward guidance could cause the stock to fall to the $290-$305 range [9][10]. Key Focus Areas - The market will be closely monitoring updates on autonomy, Q3 margin, delivery guidance, and progress in key markets such as China and Europe [11].