特斯拉Q2财报前瞻：汽车业务或面临十年最大降幅，Robotaxi能否支撑高估值？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is preparing for a potential significant decline in quarterly revenue, with expectations of an 11% year-over-year drop to $22.6 billion in Q2, marking the largest quarterly sales decline since 2012 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business, which contributed 90% of revenue and 94% of gross profit in 2024, is currently facing challenges, with Q2 deliveries reported at 384,000 vehicles, a 13% year-over-year decline [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts Q2 revenue will reach $22.2 billion, driven by a higher mix of the new Model Y Juniper, leading to a 4% increase in average selling price (ASP) to $41,600 [4] - Gross margin for the automotive business, excluding carbon credits, is expected to improve from 12.5% in Q1 to approximately 14% in Q2, with overall GAAP gross margin projected at 16.9%, surpassing market expectations of 16.4% [4] - Barclays forecasts a 10% decline in delivery volume for 2025, with consensus EPS expectations dropping from over $3.20 to $1.84 [6] Group 2: Future Outlook - Tesla's delivery target for 2025 is set cautiously at 1.58 million units, lower than the market expectation of 1.62 million, primarily due to delays in the low-cost Model Q [6] - The upcoming Model Y long-wheelbase version is expected to contribute approximately 50,000 units in Q4 [9] - The Robotaxi business is seen as a new growth engine, with plans to expand the fleet to over 1,000 vehicles in the next 6 to 9 months, targeting cities like San Francisco and Phoenix [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Tesla's stock price is heavily reliant on investor confidence in its long-term vision, with approximately 95% of its current valuation tied to future potential rather than current financial performance [3] - Despite the challenges, Tesla's stock remains highly valued at 142 times expected profits, compared to the Nasdaq index at 100 times [7] Group 4: Policy and Competitive Landscape - The potential end of the EV tax credit in the U.S. by September 2025 could lead to a significant drop in sales, as about 20% of Tesla's global sales benefit from this subsidy [12] - Competition from Xiaomi's SU7 is noted, although Tesla's Model 3 sales in China have not been significantly impacted since the SU7 launch [4]