特斯拉：基本面与宏大叙事的鸿沟正在拉大

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is at a crossroads as the gap between its AI-driven narrative and short-term business realities continues to widen, leading to a disconnection between stock performance and fundamental performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Tesla's automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, reached 15.0%, surpassing market expectations of 13.6% and Barclays' forecast of 13.0% [1]. - Analysts warn that the company's fundamentals may continue to deteriorate in the coming quarters, despite the decent gross margin performance [1]. Short-term Challenges - Tesla faces significant short-term challenges due to the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit, which is expected to lead to a "cliff-like" drop in demand in Q4 [4][6]. - The company is also dealing with increased tariff costs, which amounted to approximately $300 million in Q2, and a decline in regulatory credit income due to changes in emission standards [6]. AI Narrative and Future Plans - Despite the pressure on fundamentals, Tesla's AI narrative, particularly the Robotaxi plan, remains a key pillar supporting investor confidence [5]. - Elon Musk is working on a new "master plan" to transition from "pre-autonomous driving" to "post-autonomous driving," with Robotaxi at the core of this vision [5]. Upcoming Events - The annual shareholder meeting on November 6 will be a critical catalyst, with key agenda items including Musk's new compensation plan and potential investments in Musk's other company, xAI [8]. - Musk has indicated that he may provide updates on AI, Optimus, and self-developed chips during the meeting, with a goal of producing 1 million Optimus robots within five years [8].