特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's automotive sales have experienced the largest decline in a decade, raising concerns about its high valuation, particularly regarding the anticipated Robotaxi business, which faces significant challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Robotaxi Challenges - The Robotaxi business is hindered by three main challenges: technological reliability, consumer behavior change, and profitability proof [4]. - Technological reliability is questioned as Tesla must demonstrate that its camera-only solution is as robust and reliable as the multi-sensor fusion solutions commonly used in the industry. Early signs from the Austin pilot project are not promising, with only about 7,000 miles accumulated across a few vehicles, translating to less than half the daily trips of Waymo vehicles [4]. - Changing consumer behavior poses a significant hurdle, as the shift from private car ownership to using Robotaxis is described as a "huge challenge" that requires a fundamental change in deep-rooted consumer habits [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Tesla has failed to meet market expectations for EBIT for three consecutive quarters, marking the 11th time in 12 quarters that performance has fallen short [3]. - HSBC has lowered its revenue forecasts for Tesla for 2025-2027 by 1-3%, with gross profit expectations reduced by 3-7% and operating income projections significantly cut by 16-27% [6]. - The updated financial estimates show a decline in operating profit margins and net income projections for 2025 and 2026, with a notable decrease of 27% and 23% respectively [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tesla's automotive business faces structural challenges, including an aging product line, increased market competition, and a damaged brand image, which have contributed to declining sales [5]. - The end of tariffs and U.S. electric vehicle incentives is expected to further impact demand [5]. - Despite Elon Musk's optimism regarding the potential of autonomous driving and humanoid robots, actual progress remains limited, with the Robotaxi initiative showing slow advancement and the Optimus robot undergoing a redesign that is projected to yield a much lower production capacity than previously suggested [5].