马斯克的“三体计划”，救不了当下的特斯拉

Core Insights - Tesla's Q2 2025 financial report shows a significant decline in revenue, net profit, delivery volume, and free cash flow, marking a rare full-line drop [2] - The core automotive business has experienced two consecutive quarters of year-on-year negative growth, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory [2][3] - Amidst these challenges, CEO Elon Musk emphasized ambitious future projects like Robotaxi, FSD, and the Optimus humanoid robot, creating a stark contrast between current performance and future aspirations [5][8] Financial Performance - Total revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year to $22.496 billion, while net profit fell by 20.7% to $1.172 billion [2] - The core automotive business revenue dropped by 16% to $16.661 billion, with global delivery volume down by 13.5% to 384,000 units [2][3] - Carbon credit revenue plummeted by 51% to $439 million, contributing to the overall financial decline [2] Product Line and Market Dynamics - Deliveries of the flagship Model S/X halved to 10,400 units, while the Model 3/Y saw a 12% decline to 373,700 units [3] - China, as the largest single market, contributed 128,800 units, accounting for 34% of global deliveries, but still could not reverse the overall downturn [3] - In response to market pressures, Tesla plans to launch a higher-end Model Y L priced around 400,000 yuan and has initiated trial production of a budget model in the U.S. [3][4] Regulatory and Policy Challenges - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. ends a 17-year electric vehicle tax credit system, which will increase the effective purchase cost of Model 3/Y by approximately 16% [3] - Musk indicated that Tesla may face a "difficult" period in the coming quarters due to the impact of the tax credit termination and tariffs [3] Strategic Initiatives - Tesla is implementing promotional strategies to clear existing inventory and has postponed the launch of new budget models to Q4 [4] - The company is under pressure to balance sales, profits, and long-term vision, with Q3 seen as a critical period for restructuring and refining its approach [4] Future Vision and Challenges - Musk's focus on Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus aims to create a new narrative for Tesla, but significant challenges remain in regulatory approval and technology validation [5][6][8] - The Robotaxi service has accumulated over 7,000 miles of real-world testing data, with plans to expand coverage significantly, but regulatory hurdles persist [6] - The FSD technology has seen a 25% increase in adoption since the launch of FSD 12, yet regulatory approval remains a bottleneck in various regions [6][7] Organizational Changes - Tesla is undergoing significant internal restructuring, with a wave of high-profile executive departures highlighting the need for operational efficiency and management stability [9][10] - Musk has taken direct control of U.S. sales operations, while senior executive Zhu Xiaotong has been promoted to oversee global manufacturing and Asian sales [11] Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is critical for Tesla, with challenges including new model launches, battery production ramp-up, and advancements in autonomous driving technology [12] - The current situation reflects a disconnect between Tesla's manufacturing performance and its technological ambitions, raising questions about future profitability and market confidence [13]