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联邦制药(03933.HK)深度报告:穿越周期的抗生素产业龙头 创新管线迎来兑现拐点

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a leader in the antibiotic industry, with a diversified business model that includes intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and formulations, which is expected to drive a new growth cycle through business synergies [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company has developed a comprehensive business structure encompassing intermediates (6APA, G potassium salt), APIs (Amoxicillin, Ampicillin), and formulations (animal health, insulin, generic formulations) [1] - The company is expected to see resilient growth in its core business driven by the removal of capacity constraints in animal health, increased coverage from insulin contract renewals, and the market launch of hard-to-copy biosimilars [1][2] - The stable cash flow from core businesses is anticipated to support ongoing innovation and transformation efforts, potentially leading to a new performance growth cycle [1] Group 2: Innovation and Clinical Development - The company successfully partnered with Novo Nordisk for its innovative product UBT251, a self-developed GLP/GIP/GCG tri-target drug, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [2] - UBT251 has completed Phase Ib clinical trials in overweight/obese patients, demonstrating a weight loss of 15.1% in the highest dosage group over 12 weeks [2] - The company has initiated Phase II clinical trials for UBT251 in China, with expectations for domestic approval by 2028, and has a pipeline of other products in the metabolic and autoimmune fields [2] Group 3: Revenue Projections - The company's formulation business is projected to achieve a CAGR of 8.0% from 2024 to 2027, driven by the establishment of new production bases and the introduction of new products [3] - The animal health business is expected to benefit from new production bases in Henan and Zhuhai, while insulin products are anticipated to see significant growth due to contract renewals and new product approvals [3] - The intermediate and API segments are forecasted to experience a CAGR of -7.0% from 2024 to 2027, with price stabilization expected in the medium to long term due to oligopolistic market conditions [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.78 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.27 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, -23.4%, and 6.9% respectively [4] - Corresponding PE multiples are expected to be 10, 13, and 12 times for the same period, with an initial recommendation of "buy" [4]