AI sets date when Tesla stock will hit $500

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has experienced volatility, but projections suggest it could reach $500 by late 2026 to 2028, representing a potential upside of 58% from its current price of $316 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year decline in total revenue to $22.4 billion, with vehicle sales revenue dropping 16% compared to Q2 2024 [4]. Market Capitalization and Earnings Growth - To justify a $500 share price, Tesla would need to grow its market capitalization from approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.6 trillion, requiring annual earnings of $16 billion to $20 billion, up from the current range of $9 billion to $10 billion [5]. Path to $500 Share Price - The base-case scenario indicates that Tesla could reach $500 between late 2026 and mid-2027, contingent on scaling a Robotaxi service, increasing revenue from Full Self-Driving software, and launching a mass-market vehicle like the $25,000 Model 2 [6]. Key Catalysts - Successful rollout of the Robotaxi service, widespread adoption of Tesla's low-cost EV platform in 2026, and monetization of AI and robotics efforts, including the Optimus humanoid robot and advancements in Full Self-Driving technology, are identified as key catalysts [7]. Alternate Timelines - A bullish scenario could see the $500 target reached as early as Q4 2025, while a more cautious outlook suggests it might not be achieved until between 2028 and 2030 [8].