Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 282% to 292%, setting a new historical record for the company [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates sales revenue (including tax) of approximately 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 240% to 252% [3]. - The expected revenue is around 12 billion to 12.5 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 241% to 255% compared to the previous year [3]. - The adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) is projected to be about 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB, marking an increase of 282% to 292% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit is estimated to be around 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion RMB, which is a growth of 279% to 288% compared to the same period last year [3]. Stock Performance - Laopu Gold's stock price has seen a significant increase of 373% from the beginning of the year until early July, although it has recently experienced a decline of over 30% from its peak of 1,108 HKD [1][5]. - As of July 25, the stock closed at 764.5 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 219.5% [5]. Market Dynamics - The company's growth is attributed to its expanding brand influence and market advantages, leading to substantial revenue growth from both online and offline stores [3]. - The stock price decline may be linked to the release of locked shares and reduced market confidence, as a large number of shares held by 12 shareholders, including the founder, were unlocked at the end of June [9]. Competitive Positioning - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end brand, with approximately 40% of its products priced between 10,000 to 250,000 RMB, and over a quarter of its revenue coming from products priced above 50,000 RMB [10]. - The company ranks first in average revenue per store and sales efficiency among all well-known jewelry brands in mainland China, surpassing international luxury brands [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts have differing views on Laopu Gold's future performance, with some expressing concerns about high market expectations for net profit in 2025 amid potential fluctuations in gold prices [17]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, predicting accelerated growth in the second half of the year due to rising gold prices and strong demand, adjusting revenue forecasts upward by 13% to 18% for 2025 to 2027 [18].
老铺黄金业绩爆发：上半年利润预增近3倍！本月股价较高点已跌超30%