诺和诺德面临“验证”时刻：美国山寨药禁令后如何重振Wegovy增长势头

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk is at a critical juncture as it faces investor skepticism regarding its growth potential despite recent increases in Wegovy prescriptions following the ban on generic versions [1][2] - The company has seen a 33% increase in new Wegovy prescriptions since the FDA's ban, with weekly prescriptions reaching 181,200 by July 18, narrowing the gap with Eli Lilly's Zepbound [1] - Investors are eagerly awaiting the Q2 earnings report on August 6 to validate management's claims that the ban will boost sales in the second half of the year [1][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - Despite the initial positive impact of the ban on generic drugs, market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts questioning whether prescription trends will drive stock prices [2] - Analysts from Berenberg and Barclays express differing views on the likelihood of the company adjusting its guidance downward in the upcoming earnings report [2][5] - Some analysts believe that the IQVIA prescription data may not fully capture sales through NovoCare, the company's direct-to-consumer platform launched in March [2] Group 2: Strategies to Regain Market Share - Novo Nordisk's primary objective is to reclaim patients who turned to generic drugs during Wegovy's supply shortages [3] - The company has implemented strategies such as offering limited-time discounts for first-month users and improving insurance coverage agreements with CVS Health [3] - The FDA's confirmation that Wegovy is no longer in short supply has facilitated the company's efforts to regain market share [3] Group 3: Focus on Earnings Guidance - The market's attention is heavily focused on whether Novo Nordisk will adjust its annual earnings guidance in the upcoming report [4] - In May, the company lowered its sales growth forecast from 16-24% to 13-21% and its operating profit growth forecast from 19-27% to 16-24% [5] - Some analysts do not expect further downward adjustments to guidance, citing low expectations and valuations as potential indicators of long-term growth potential [5]