Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-29 06:55Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU involves a 15% tariff rate, increasing the effective tariff on EU goods exported to the US from approximately 10% to about 16% [1] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the impact of trade tensions on the Eurozone's GDP from -0.6% to -0.4%, indicating a more positive outlook for the European economy [1][6] - The agreement is expected to positively influence European growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising predictions by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively [1][6] Group 2 - The automotive sector benefits significantly from the agreement, with tariffs on cars reduced from 27.5% to 15%, impacting approximately €60 billion in exports, which constitutes 10% of total EU exports to the US [2] - Germany and Italy are the primary beneficiaries, accounting for 74% of EU automotive exports to the US [2] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical products are temporarily exempt from the new 15% tariff until early 2027 due to the sensitivity of drug pricing, with Ireland, Germany, Belgium, and Italy being the main beneficiaries of this exemption [3] Group 4 - Tariffs on steel and aluminum will remain at 50%, while the EU plans to reduce trade barriers through tariff cuts and quota systems [4] - Steel and aluminum products represent only 4% of the EU's total exports to the US, approximately €23 billion [4] Group 5 - The EU has committed to significantly increasing its procurement of US energy products, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which would triple current imports and account for 60% of EU energy imports [5] - Achieving this procurement goal is considered highly challenging, even with existing plans included [5] Group 6 - The overall economic impact of the tariff agreement is better than expected, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, while also noting a slight increase in inflation expectations for 2026 [6]