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三生制药(1530.HK):辉瑞引进PD-1/VEGF双抗中国内地权益;上调峰值销售预测及目标价
3SBIO3SBIO(HK:01530) Ge Long Hui·2025-07-29 10:48

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company has upgraded its profit forecast and target price following the formalization of the licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, highlighting the product's significant potential value across multiple major tumor types [1][2] - The licensing agreement with Pfizer includes an upfront payment of $150 million for the exclusive rights to develop and commercialize SSGJ-707 in mainland China, along with future payments and a double-digit revenue share [2] - Pfizer plans to initiate global Phase III clinical trials for SSGJ-707, starting with patient recruitment in the U.S., leveraging its strong pipeline and commercialization capabilities to enhance the product's competitive position in the PD-(L)1 market [2] Group 2 - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 2-6% based on higher collaboration income predictions, and has also increased its net profit forecast by 6-9% due to the growing contribution of high-margin innovative drugs [3] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to HKD 33, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25.8x and 23.9x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting a shift from traditional single-product performance to long-term growth driven by new product iterations and international expansion [3] - Despite the target valuation being higher than historical averages, the company is at a critical juncture for growth, indicating significant potential for upward adjustment in future valuation [3]