Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-29 11:07Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors have downplayed the risks of economic recession due to tariffs, but Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer remains cautious about the potential impact on stock prices even if agreements are reached with major trading partners [1] - Oppenheimer's previous warnings about the overvaluation of the U.S. stock market and his advocacy for diversifying into international markets have proven effective, as the MSCI ex-U.S. global index has risen 17% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 8.6% increase [1] - The current market volatility is characterized by a "sharp drop followed by a strong rebound," indicating an event-driven bear market, with potential risks from escalating tariff policies not fully priced in [2] Group 2 - Oppenheimer emphasizes that despite the potential for continued gains in the U.S. stock market, structural changes and cyclical evolution remain the core analytical dimensions of Goldman Sachs' strategy framework [3] - The relative competitiveness of U.S. markets is declining faster than what valuations reflect, which is a key driver for the decision to diversify geographically [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine crisis, and challenges related to energy prices and trade dependencies further reinforce the consensus on the over-concentration of the U.S. market [2]