Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance maintains a leading position in the property insurance sector, with a market share of 37.5% in 2024, significantly higher than its competitors [1] Group 1: Company Strengths - The company has a stable underwriting profit with a combined ratio below 100% for nearly 15 years, projected at 96.8% in 2024, outperforming the industry median of 102.8% [1] - Excellent cost control is evident, with a combined expense ratio approximately 7 percentage points lower than smaller competitors, aided by an increasing direct sales channel [1] - Strong shareholder backing from the Ministry of Finance, holding 68.98% of shares, provides long-term resource support and policy synergy [1] Group 2: Auto Insurance Business - Auto insurance, accounting for 55% of the company's revenue, is a key profit driver, contributing an underwriting profit of 9.285 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The company excels in refined operational capabilities, with a 74.3% share of personal auto premiums and a renewal rate of 77.8%, which reduces claims risk [1] - The company leads in new energy vehicle insurance, with 11.59 million vehicles insured in 2024, a 57.3% increase, and premium income of 50.9 billion yuan, up 58.7% [1] - Policy reforms in non-auto insurance are expected to further enhance pricing power and reduce expense ratios by 1 percentage point [1] Group 3: Non-Auto Insurance Business - Non-auto insurance, making up 45% of the company's revenue, is projected to generate 240.7 billion yuan in premium income in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.9% over the past six years [2] - Despite a short-term underwriting loss of 3.572 billion yuan, structural optimization is underway, with profitable segments like health insurance and agricultural insurance contributing positively [2] - The agricultural insurance market share reached 42.7% in 2022, benefiting from government policies [2] Group 4: Investment Performance - The company shows resilience in its investment portfolio, with a total investment return rate of 5.2% in 2024, and a low volatility compared to peers [2] - The dividend CAGR from 2011 to 2024 is 12.8%, with an average dividend payout ratio of 36.5%, and a projected dividend of 0.54 yuan per share in 2024 [2] Group 5: Future Projections - The company is expected to continue leading the industry, with projected insurance service revenues of 508.3 billion yuan, 533.4 billion yuan, and 560.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 38.3 billion yuan, 41.4 billion yuan, and 44.9 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.02 yuan per share [2]
中国财险(2328.HK)：纯财险标的 龙头优势稳固 增长潜力可期