Core Viewpoint - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a new management regulation for tobacco products in the domestic duty-free market, which aims to strengthen supervision and maintain market order due to existing issues such as unregulated business practices and smuggling [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background - The new regulation addresses problems in the domestic duty-free tobacco market, including unregulated operations, unclear sources of imported tobacco products, and lack of logistics traceability, which harm national tax revenue and consumer rights [1]. - The regulation specifically targets the wholesale and retail of duty-free tobacco products in the domestic market, covering various tobacco products including cigarettes, cigars, and tobacco leaves, while prohibiting the sale of heated tobacco and e-cigarettes [2]. Group 2: Business Impact - The regulation will unify the management of duty-free tobacco product imports and exports under state-owned trade, requiring retail enterprises to submit procurement requests and wholesale enterprises to source from suppliers [2]. - The implementation of this regulation could lead to further development of the company's cigarette import and export business, contingent on the effectiveness of the new laws and regulations [2]. Group 3: Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company, as the only publicly listed entity under China Tobacco's international operations, is expected to see stable growth in its tobacco leaf export business, with potential for increased elasticity in cigarette and new tobacco product exports [3]. - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to tariffs and geopolitical factors, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being HKD 870 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.13 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].
中烟香港(06055.HK)：境内免税烟草制品管理办法征求意见稿发布