近期，受美国超预期关税政策影响，全球资本市场波动性加剧，港股市场也未能幸免。4月7日，恒生指 数回吐年内全部涨幅。 然而，市场巨震往往伴随估值体系重构，在恐慌性抛售与流动性折价的双重挤压下，那些拥有独特壁垒 并长期稳健增长的企业往往成为资金配置的优先选择，也更容易实现估值修复。 中烟香港凭借独特的市场定位，理当也是其中之一，最新出炉的财报也再度验证了这一点。2024年，公 司实现营业收入130.74亿港元，同比增长10.5%；净利润达到9.03亿港元，同比增长30.4%。 自2021年，中烟香港收购中烟巴西100%股权，标志着其从贸易流通向全产业链掌控的跨越，整合了烟 叶种植、采购、加工、销售及出口等环节。借此，公司形成"种植-加工-贸易"一体化能力，打破传统贸 易商对上游的被动依赖。同时，公司以巴西成为辐射南美及欧洲的支点，逐渐打开全球市场空间。 更重要的是，中烟香港在做好烟叶基本盘的前提下，还在进一步培育更多增长点。 比如卷烟出口业务,2024年销售额达到15.74亿港元，同比增长30.2%；毛利2.77亿港元，同比增长 69.1%，是公司近年来最具成长性的板块。 中烟香港近年来持续积极拓宽市场覆盖范围， ...

中烟香港 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6055.HK） 公司点评 各业务稳步推进，持续拓展卷烟出口业务 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-04-08 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 21.20 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）29.55/10.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 692 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 692 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 147 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 147 | 1）随着卷烟出口业务的扩张，2025 年 4 月 3 日，公司已按与原订约方 订立框架协议之相同条款及条件，与后续订约方之一蒙昆公司订立框架 协议。2）公司已向联交所申请，而联交所已同意授出现有豁免的修订， 以涵盖与后续订约方订立的框架协议，豁免严格遵守有关年度上限及独 立股东批准的规定，且该等交易的期限应属无限期，惟须受现有豁免的 相同条件所规限。 ⚫ 积极丰富及优化产品组合，卷烟出口业务稳 ...

中烟香港 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6055.HK） 公司点评 各业务稳步推进，持续拓展卷烟出口业务 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-04-08 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 21.20 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）29.55/10.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 692 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 692 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 147 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 147 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1）随着卷烟出口业务的扩张，2025 年 4 月 3 日，公 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is the only publicly listed tobacco entity within the China Tobacco system, tasked with integrating overseas assets. It has shown steady growth in performance since its listing in 2019, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 869 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, unique operating model, and significant potential for capital operations and international business expansion [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 10,726 million yuan - 2024: 12,107 million yuan - 2025E: 13,141 million yuan - 2026E: 14,231 million yuan - 2027E: 15,376 million yuan - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 44% for 2023, 13% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 543 million yuan - 2024: 791 million yuan - 2025E: 869 million yuan - 2026E: 998 million yuan - 2027E: 1,131 million yuan - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 62% for 2023, 46% for 2024, and 10% for 2025 [5][6]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a planned business model within the tobacco monopoly system, benefiting from a strong competitive barrier and stable profitability [6][19]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected as follows: - Leaf imports: 63% - Leaf exports: 16% - Cigarette exports: 12% - New tobacco products: 1% - Brazilian business: 8% - The gross profit contributions are 60% from leaf imports, 6% from leaf exports, 20% from cigarette exports, 1% from new tobacco products, and 13% from Brazilian business [6][19]. Capital Operations and International Expansion - The company is positioned as the designated platform for capital market operations and international business expansion for China Tobacco. It has substantial overseas asset reserves, indicating significant potential for global capital operations [6][7]. - The report draws parallels with Japan Tobacco's global expansion strategy, suggesting that the company could achieve similar valuation premiums through effective integration of overseas assets [9][19]. Key Assumptions and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates steady growth in leaf import volumes, with expected year-on-year increases of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - Cigarette export volumes are projected to grow by 15% in 2025 and 2026, and by 12% in 2027, driven by the recovery of global travel and market expansion [8]. - New tobacco product exports are expected to see a 15% increase annually from 2025 to 2027, despite a projected decrease in average prices [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through both organic growth and external collaboration, positioning itself as a key platform for capital operations and international business expansion under China Tobacco's high-quality development strategy [6][8]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 13.07 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [6]. - The company has shown robust growth in its import and export business, particularly in tobacco leaf and cigarette exports, with significant increases in both revenue and profit margins [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.84 billion HKD in 2023 to 17.21 billion HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 599 million HKD in 2023 to 1.23 billion HKD in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 14% in 2025 [6][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.87 HKD in 2023 to 1.77 HKD in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [6][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with a forecast of 28.4% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 24.6% by 2027 [8]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to rise from 60% in 2023 to 69.3% in 2025, indicating a potential increase in leverage [8]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 28.0 in 2023 to 13.6 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with both organic and external growth strategies being effectively implemented [5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13,074 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 853.74 million HKD, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 42.6% [6] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both import and export of tobacco products, with notable growth in various segments [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11,836.22 million HKD, Net Profit of 598.77 million HKD - 2024: Revenue of 13,074.24 million HKD, Net Profit of 853.74 million HKD - 2025E: Revenue of 14,590.45 million HKD, Net Profit of 965.40 million HKD - 2026E: Revenue of 15,989.09 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,124.04 million HKD - 2027E: Revenue of 17,346.28 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,287.66 million HKD [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.86 HKD by 2027 [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.54% in 2024 to 11.59% in 2027, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10] Business Segment Performance - Import Business: - Revenue from tobacco leaf imports is projected to be 8,254.25 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.17% [9] - Export Business: - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach 2,061.54 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.78% [9] - Cigarette export revenue is forecasted at 1,573.64 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.19% [9] - New Tobacco Products: - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected to be 135.18 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.00% [9] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 28.00 to 29.40 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 to 21 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The company expects net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, achieving a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase [2]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 10.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of higher-margin Brazilian business [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion in 2024, a 30.2% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 277 million, marking a 69.1% rise [3]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports improved to 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of self-operated channels [3]. Product Segmentation - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 84 million, up 85.8% [3]. - New tobacco product exports achieved a revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 7 million, reflecting a 23.2% growth [4]. - The Brazilian business segment reported a revenue of HKD 1.050 billion, a 37.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 184 million, up 30.2% [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.31 per share, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 37% and a dividend yield of 1.9% based on the current stock price [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% for the same periods [11][13]. - The estimated gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 11.57% by 2027 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, with a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase. The gross margin improved to 10.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion, a 30.2% increase, with gross profit rising by 69.1% to HKD 277 million, resulting in a gross margin of 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with gross profit soaring by 85.8% to HKD 84 million, leading to a gross margin of 4.1%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The new tobacco products export business recorded revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with gross profit of HKD 7 million, up 23.2%, and a gross margin of 5.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with projected revenues of HKD 13.14 billion in 2025, HKD 13.671 billion in 2026, and HKD 14.155 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% respectively [11][13]. - The net profit is projected to grow to HKD 960 million in 2025, HKD 1.021 billion in 2026, and HKD 1.076 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% respectively [11][13]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 29.2 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025, with a forecasted EPS of HKD 1.32 [14]. - The DCF valuation estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 20.607 billion, corresponding to a price of HKD 29.4 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK$13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK$13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK$8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK$1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK$135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$14.416 billion, HK$15.753 billion, and HK$17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$958 million, HK$1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance with a total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan, up 42.6% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for the second half of 2024 was 4.370 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, which is a 48.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The company improved its profitability significantly through product and channel optimization and pricing strategy adjustments, achieving an annual gross margin of 10.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - **Tobacco Leaf Imports**: Total revenue was 8.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The volume and average price changed by -4.5% and +7.0% respectively [2] - **Tobacco Leaf Exports**: Revenue reached 2.062 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +18.4% and +5.4% respectively [2] - **Cigarette Exports**: Revenue was 1.574 billion yuan, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +19.1% and +9.3% respectively [2] - **New Tobacco Products Exports**: Revenue was 135 million yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +12.5% and -7.6% respectively [3] - **Brazil Operations**: Revenue was 1.050 billion yuan, a 37.0% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of -2.4% and +40.3% respectively [3] 2025 Outlook - The company expects to continue improving profitability and maintain a stable increase in per-share dividends [4] - It aims to focus on both organic and external growth, enhancing its capital operation platform [4] - The company plans to dynamically assess international conditions to ensure a stable supply of high-quality tobacco leaves and cultivate growth in emerging markets [4] - Continued focus on cigarette brand development and optimization of product and brand matrix is anticipated, along with an expansion of the cigar business and tax markets [4] - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 970 million yuan, 1.122 billion yuan, and 1.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5X, 16.9X, and 15.5X [5] - Key financial indicators for 2024A include total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan, net profit of 854 million yuan, and an EPS of 1.23 yuan [7]