Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-30 01:01Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3600 points, but individual stocks showed weakness, indicating underlying complexities in market dynamics [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for global capital markets, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to reveal potential dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, which would be a rare occurrence since 1993 [3] - Market participants are closely monitoring Chairman Powell's statements for any dovish signals regarding a potential rate cut in September, particularly concerning economic risks and inflation [3] External Market Influences - U.S. stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, while European markets, particularly the German DAX, rose by 1.03% due to easing trade tensions [3] - The extension of a 24% reciprocal tariff suspension between China and the U.S. and the easing of high-end chip export restrictions are seen as positive developments for the semiconductor and AI sectors [3] A-share Market Dynamics - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.82 billion yuan, reversing six consecutive days of net selling, with significant investments in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly in innovative drug companies [4] - There is a noticeable divergence in main capital flows, with some sectors like real estate and biopharmaceuticals seeing increased investment, while automotive and machinery sectors faced sell-offs due to disappointing consumer recovery [4] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's stability above 3600 points is accompanied by a lack of strong buying momentum, as indicated by a low trading volume of 73.5 billion yuan in the first half hour [4] - The ChiNext Index showed a strong performance, breaking through 2400 points, driven by gains in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors [4] Policy Developments - A significant press conference is scheduled to announce new childcare subsidies and fertility support measures, which could provide a short-term boost to the maternal and educational consumption sectors [4] - Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with sustained policy benefits, such as innovative drugs and domestic AI computing capabilities [4] Investment Strategies - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue around the 3600-point mark, with three key areas of focus: semiconductor components, innovative drugs, and military industry due to rising expectations from the upcoming Zhuhai Airshow [5] - Long-term investors are advised to remain focused on the overarching themes of trade easing and corporate profit growth, regardless of short-term market volatility [5]