Core Viewpoint - The company has a solid long-term competitive advantage, leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion respectively [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company is expected to achieve approximately 30% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both same-store sales and an increase in the number of stores [2] - The number of stores is projected to reach around 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with about 1,100 new stores added [2] - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some were delayed due to renovation capacity constraints, which are expected to ease by June [2] Group 2: Profitability - The company is anticipated to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of around 1 billion in the first half of 2025 [3] - The gross margin is expected to expand due to increased cup volume, although the lower margin from coffee machines may offset some of this increase [3] - The company plans to enhance marketing efforts for coffee products, which may lead to a rise in coffee cup volume to over 10% by June [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 3,000 new stores for the entire year [4] - Same-store performance may normalize in the second half due to base effects and a reduction in delivery subsidies, but it is still expected to outperform the industry [4] - The company has established a foundation that does not rely solely on a single platform for survival, which may enhance its long-term competitive advantage despite the reduction in delivery subsidies [4]
中金：维持古茗目标价28港元 评级“跑赢行业”