国金证券：全球肉牛价格开启上行 看好牧业景气周期

Core Viewpoint - The global beef prices have entered a new prosperity cycle, benefiting beef-exporting countries, particularly New Zealand, as prices rise in key markets like the U.S. and China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Beef Market Dynamics - The global beef price has started an upward trend, expected to continue until 2027, following a decline that began in April 2022 [1]. - By June 2025, global beef prices are projected to reach $6.58 per kilogram, marking a 36.2% increase from previous levels [1]. - The supply of beef is anticipated to decrease over the next two years, contributing to sustained price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Domestic Beef Supply and Pricing - Approximately 73% of China's beef supply comes from domestic production, with a significant reduction in both domestic cattle inventory and imports [2]. - The top 50 beef farming enterprises in China account for only 1.25% of the total cattle inventory, indicating low levels of industry consolidation [2]. - China's beef imports are expected to decline by about 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy restrictions and lower domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Global Beef Supply - Global cattle inventory is projected to decrease, with a decline of 0.3% and 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, reaching a ten-year low [3]. - South American countries, which supply over 70% of China's beef imports, are experiencing production declines due to adverse weather and market conditions [3]. - The U.S. beef prices have reached historical highs, with a continuous decline in cattle numbers over the past five years, further tightening global supply [3].