诺和诺德(NVO.US)命运转折点：市场过度反应，还是GLP-1神话终结

Core Viewpoint - The recent nearly 30% drop in Novo Nordisk's stock price has raised concerns about whether the market is overreacting or if the "Ozempic era" is truly coming to an end [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Novo Nordisk, a leader in the GLP-1 drug revolution, has revised its full-year sales growth forecast from 13%-21% to 8%-14%, and operating profit growth from 16%-24% to 10%-16% [2]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock decline of over 60% [1][2]. - The recent CEO transition, with Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepping down and Maziar Mike Doustdar taking over, has sparked mixed reactions among investors regarding the company's future direction [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Demand for GLP-1 drugs is weakening due to high costs and limited insurance coverage for weight loss indications, with Ozempic costing around $1,000 per month [4]. - Competition is intensifying, particularly from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, which has shown superior weight loss results in clinical trials compared to Wegovy [5]. - Novo Nordisk's patents in China are set to expire in 2026, allowing for the introduction of generic versions of semaglutide, which could further impact market share [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite a significant stock price drop, Novo Nordisk's current expected P/E ratio is approximately 17 times, with an enterprise value to sales ratio exceeding 6 times, indicating that the stock is not necessarily undervalued [6]. - Historical patterns show that pharmaceutical companies often experience significant stock price volatility following the success of blockbuster drugs, suggesting that Novo Nordisk may need to adjust to new growth rates and competitive pressures [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Potential turning points for Novo Nordisk include the approval of a higher dose of Wegovy, expanded insurance coverage, regulatory tightening on compound drug usage, and market expansion efforts under the new CEO [12]. - The company is facing a transition from being an "innovation star" to a "regular pharmaceutical company," and its ability to rebound in stock price will depend on creating differentiated value through new products and market strategies [14].