BUD APAC(HK:01876) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-01 01:45Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Budweiser APAC's EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% to $1.679 billion and $1.771 billion respectively, due to weak demand in the China region [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with revenue, sales volume, average selling price (ASP), and EBITDA showing year-on-year changes of -3.9%, -6.2%, +2.4%, and -4.5% respectively [2] - In the China market, revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA experienced year-on-year declines of -6.4%, -7.4%, +1.1%, and -4.0% respectively [2] Group 2: Regional Insights - In the China region, sales volume decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed, attributed to inventory reduction and channel structure adjustments [3] - ASP in the China region increased by 1.1% year-on-year, benefiting from product mix optimization, with high-end and super high-end products gaining a larger share in non-immediate consumption channels [3] - The Indian market continued to show double-digit growth in revenue, while the Korean market faced pressure due to preemptive stocking and market weakness, leading to a decline in EBITDA margin [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2H25, the company expects stabilization and gradual improvement, with a focus on dealer interests in the China region and low channel inventory [5] - The company plans to expand non-immediate consumption channels and invest in high-end products in Korea and India to enhance profitability [5] - Cost-wise, raw material prices are expected to remain low, which may support profit margin recovery [5]