苹果：AI 太拉胯，关键时刻还是靠 iPhone

Overall Performance - Apple reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $94 billion, a 9.6% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $89.2 billion, driven primarily by strong iPhone sales [1][3] - The gross margin for the quarter was 46.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year-over-year, also surpassing the expected 46% [1][3] iPhone Performance - iPhone revenue reached $44.6 billion, a 13.5% year-over-year increase, significantly above the consensus estimate of $39.85 billion [1][3] - The growth in iPhone sales was attributed to the iPhone 16 series, demand from emerging markets, and preemptive purchases due to tariffs, with estimated shipment growth of 2.7% and an average selling price increase of 10.5% [1][4] Other Hardware Performance - Mac revenue grew by 15% year-over-year, driven by the M4 MacBook Air, with double-digit growth in emerging markets [2][4] - iPad and other hardware sales declined, impacted by high base effects from previous year launches, despite some support from government subsidies in China [2][4] Software and Services - Software services revenue reached $27.4 billion, exceeding expectations of $26.8 billion, maintaining a high gross margin of 75.6% [2][4] - The services segment accounted for nearly 29% of total revenue, contributing 47% of the company's gross profit [2][4] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was observed across all regions, with the Americas contributing 43.8% of total revenue and a 9.3% year-over-year increase [2][4] - Greater China saw a 4.4% year-over-year growth, reversing previous declines, while other Asia-Pacific regions experienced the fastest growth at 20% [2][4] Cost and Margin Analysis - Hardware gross margin fell to 34.5% due to approximately $800 million in tariff-related costs, while the adjusted hardware gross margin was estimated at 35.7% [5][6] - The company anticipates continued tariff pressures, estimating around $1.1 billion in costs for the next quarter [6] Investment Perspective - Apple's current market capitalization is $3.1 trillion, with a projected PE ratio of around 28 for FY2025, indicating a relatively low market expectation [11] - Despite potential external risks, the company maintains a strong user base and operational stability, although concerns about product innovation and AI advancements could impact market expectations [12]