TDI涨价遭遇老股东减持，“化工茅”的分歧与未来

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical, a leading player in the chemical industry, is experiencing a resurgence in value due to rising TDI prices and the easing of ethane export restrictions from the U.S. after a period of industry downturn and challenges [1][7]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Prime Partner International Limited, a major shareholder, plans to reduce its stake in Wanhua Chemical by up to 0.54% over three months, which will lower its holding to 4.99% [2]. - The market reaction to this reduction was minimal, with a slight drop of 2.23% in stock price, as many believe the positive outlook for Wanhua Chemical outweighs the short-term negative impact of the share reduction [2][3]. Group 2: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - TDI prices have surged from €1900/ton to €2500/ton due to a fire at Covestro's TDI facility in Germany, which accounts for 55% of Europe's TDI capacity, leading to a significant supply disruption [3]. - In the domestic market, TDI prices increased from ¥10,733/ton in early May to ¥16,400/ton by July 31, marking a remarkable 52.80% rise [3]. - The stock price of Wanhua Chemical rose nearly 20%, from a low of ¥52 to around ¥66, driven by these price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Capacity - Despite the current price increases, there are concerns about the sustainability of TDI prices due to stagnant domestic polyester demand, which may lead to an oversupply situation by 2025 [5]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI capacity is approximately 144,000 tons/year, representing nearly 40% of global capacity, and the company is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand relationship as production consolidates among leading firms [6]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and investing in high-value chemical materials to reduce reliance on polyester, positioning itself as a more comprehensive player in the chemical industry [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Wanhua Chemical's valuation appears attractive compared to Covestro, which is set to be acquired for €12.87 billion, while Wanhua is projected to achieve a net profit of ¥13 billion in 2024 [8]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a return to profitability as companies with outdated capacities are phased out, making segments like polyurethane (TDI, MDI) worth monitoring [8].