Eastcompeace(SZ:002017) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-03 07:48Core Insights - The recent turmoil in the stablecoin market is primarily driven by regulatory changes, particularly the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation effective from August 1, 2025, which limits retail trading to licensed institutions, resulting in a significant market crash [1][3] - The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates that for every dollar of stablecoin issued, $1 must be backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, forcing major issuers like Tether to acquire substantial amounts of U.S. debt [3] - The capital-driven nature of the market has led to significant stock price volatility, with companies like Lakala and Circle experiencing drastic fluctuations in their stock values due to regulatory news and insider trading activities [4][5] Regulatory Impact - The Hong Kong regulation has drastically reduced the number of licensed stablecoin issuers from 46 to just 5, leading to a collapse in the digital currency sector, with stocks like Yao Cai Securities plummeting by 20% [1] - The U.S. GENIUS Act has compelled Tether to purchase $90.8 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the 19th largest creditor to the U.S. government [3] - The EU's MiCA regulation has also forced non-compliant stablecoins out of the market, further tightening the regulatory landscape [3] Market Dynamics - The average daily transaction volume of global stablecoins is $27.6 trillion, with a total market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, but Tether's reserves are heavily reliant on U.S. debt, which poses a risk in case of a market downturn [5] - The volatility in stock prices has been exacerbated by insider trading, with companies like Lenovo and Jinke Technology profiting from timely stock sales amidst regulatory announcements [4] - The market is characterized by a "death spiral" risk, where rising U.S. Treasury yields could trigger a sell-off of stablecoins, leading to a liquidity crisis [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor confidence has been severely shaken, as evidenced by the drastic price drops in stocks related to digital currencies, with some companies experiencing losses of up to 69% in profits [7] - The perception of digital currencies as a future asset class is being challenged by the current market realities, leading to widespread disillusionment among retail investors [7] - The situation has created a stark contrast between the potential of digital currencies and the immediate risks posed by regulatory changes and market manipulation [7]