Tesla stock enters weakest stretch of the year; TSLA crash to $200 next?

Core Insights - Tesla's share price is entering a historically challenging period, with August through October showing weak returns of 46%, 40%, and 33% positive performance respectively over the past 15 years [1] - The seasonal slump is compounded by investor concerns following disappointing Q2 2025 earnings, with TSLA shares down 1.8% on the day and 20% year-to-date [2] - Tesla reported $22.5 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, a 12% year-over-year decline, with net income dropping 16% to $1.17 billion and vehicle deliveries down 14% to 384,122 units [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $22.5 billion, reflecting a 12% decline year-over-year [3] - Net income decreased by 16% to $1.17 billion, indicating challenges with shrinking margins and weakening demand [3] - Earnings per share were $0.40, missing Wall Street's expectation of $0.43 [3] Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts have mixed views on TSLA, with an average 12-month price target of $310.84, only 2.7% above current levels [4] - Projections vary significantly, with the most bullish target at $500 and the most bearish at $19.05 [4] - Investors may need to prepare for a potential decline towards the psychological $200 level, as seasonal strength alone may not suffice for recovery [7] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces rising competition in the Chinese EV market, which poses additional challenges [7] - The company must also accelerate the rollout of its robotaxi services in major U.S. cities to reassure investors [7]