国金策略：水牛是幻觉，盈利是主线

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the current market rally may be perceived as a liquidity-driven "water buffalo," potentially overlooking the significant recovery in profitability as the main theme [2][7] - Historical data shows that since 2000, the non-financial ROE in A-shares has experienced four significant recoveries, indicating a pattern where valuation-driven market behavior precedes profitability recovery [2][3] - The current economic environment reflects a similarity to the 2016 supply-side reform, where spontaneous economic adjustments occurred before policy implementation, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic manufacturing [2][14] Group 2 - The conditions for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are maturing, as recent employment data indicates a weakening U.S. economy, although signs of marginal improvement have emerged in July [3][20] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted existing differences, with potential trade issues posing a risk to market stability, though the impact is expected to be less severe than earlier in the year [4][30] - Despite recent market adjustments, the long-term trend of improving profitability for Chinese enterprises remains intact, with recommendations for investment in upstream resources and consumer sectors [5][34][35]