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信义能源(03868.HK):成本管控得当 1H25盈利增长亮眼

Core Viewpoint - Xinyi Energy reported better-than-expected performance for 1H25, driven by effective cost control and an increase in electricity sales volume [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, up 23.4% year-on-year - The interim dividend per share was 2.9 Hong Kong cents, a 26.1% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio slightly rising to 49.4% [1] - Electricity sales volume increased by 22.7% year-on-year, contributing to revenue growth [1] - Total installed capacity reached 4.54 GW by the end of 1H25, with grid parity projects accounting for 61.8% [1] - Average electricity price decreased by 12.2% year-on-year to 0.49 yuan/kWh, attributed to increased market trading and structural factors [1] Cost Management - Gross margin slightly decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 61.8% in 1H25 - Financial expenses decreased by 19% year-on-year to 150 million yuan, with the financial expense ratio down by 4 percentage points to 12.2% [2] - The effective interest rate on bank loans fell to 2.88% from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [2] - The income tax rate decreased by 7.7 percentage points to 23.1%, benefiting from the absence of dividend tax impacts from the previous year [2] Cash Flow and Leverage - The company maintained a healthy leverage level, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.3% at the end of 1H25, unchanged from the end of 2024 [2] - Operating cash flow significantly increased by 82.2% to 310 million yuan [2] Development Trends - The company is awaiting clarity on the detailed regulations of Document No. 136 for new project acquisitions [2] - As of the end of 1H25, the parent company, Xinyi Solar, had approximately 1.2 GW of reserve projects available for acquisition, with 860 MW being grid parity projects [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5.2% and 5.0% to 1 billion yuan and 1.07 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 times and 8.9 times for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The target price has been increased by 41% to 1.35 Hong Kong dollars, reflecting an 11% upside potential from the current stock price [2]