Core Viewpoint - The company, 小菜园, has released a positive profit forecast for 1H25, expecting a net profit of 360-380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29%-36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 20%-27% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant improvement in net profit for 1H25 due to enhanced operational efficiency and refined management practices [1] - The expected same-store sales growth may face challenges due to a high base from the previous year, but revenue is projected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit year-on-year growth thanks to store expansion [1] - The company’s strong operational efficiency is expected to help absorb same-store sales pressure, showcasing resilience in net profit [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company is optimizing operational efficiency through various measures, including enhancing single-store productivity and space efficiency [1] - The average store size has been reduced from approximately 300 square meters to 240-250 square meters, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure per store from 1.7 million yuan to 1.2-1.3 million yuan, shortening the investment payback period to about 10-12 months [1] - The company’s high proportion of takeaway sales and potential optimization in platform commission rates are expected to support profitability [1] Group 3: Expansion Plans - Starting from 2H25, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts through advertisements on high-speed trains and radio, aiming to strengthen brand image and expand influence [2] - The company has set ambitious new store opening plans, with 13 and 20 new stores expected to open in July and August respectively, contributing to a total of 705 stores by August 1, 2025 [2] - The company aims to complete a total of 120 new store openings for the year, maintaining its current pace of expansion [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 5%, 4%, and 2% to 6.035 billion, 7.318 billion, and 8.886 billion yuan respectively, due to a proactive reduction in customer spending [2] - However, the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 9%, 13%, and 18% to 0.63, 0.77, and 0.93 yuan respectively, reflecting improved single-store profitability [2] - The target price for the company is set at 13.15 HKD, based on a 19x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to resilient earnings and brand strength [2]
小菜园(0999.HK)：1H利润表现靓丽 2H拓店有望提速