Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report a decline in Non-IFRS net profit for 1H25, primarily due to underperformance in film ticket sales and lower-than-expected gross margins [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 2.5 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [1]. - The expected Non-IFRS net profit for 1H25 is 219 million yuan, a decrease of 37.8% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [1]. - The company's gross margin for 1H25 is projected to be 39%, reflecting a year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Ticketing Business - The film ticketing business is expected to grow by 12%, while the live entertainment ticketing revenue is projected to remain flat due to fee impacts [1]. - The online film ticketing revenue for 1H25 is estimated at 1.006 billion yuan, showing an increase of 11.6% [1]. - The overall online entertainment ticketing revenue is expected to grow by 10% to 1.149 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Film Production and Releases - The company has participated in several films for 1H25, including "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Dumpling Queen," but their box office performances have been average, potentially leading to losses [2]. - Upcoming summer releases include multiple films, which are expected to contribute evenly to the company's profits [2]. - The company has a pipeline of films for future releases, suggesting a focus on improving box office performance [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation - The company has revised down its 2025 box office forecast by 11% to 49 billion yuan due to industry volatility [2]. - The Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 33.5% and 14.4%, respectively [2]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 17.6% to 8.4 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 5.1% [2].
猫眼娱乐(01896.HK)：自制影片或影响上半年利润 关注后续影片弹性