国信证券：钾肥、草甘膦价格上行 磷肥出口价差扩大

Group 1: Potash Market - The potash market is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic inventory decreasing to 1.82 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 34.39% [1] - China is the largest potash consumer globally, with an import dependency exceeding 60%. In 2024, domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - The average price of potassium chloride in July rose from 3,239 CNY/ton to 3,399 CNY/ton, before stabilizing at 3,230 CNY/ton by the end of the month [1] Group 2: Phosphate Market - The phosphate chemical industry is influenced by the price of phosphate rock, which is expected to maintain a high price level due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs. The market price for 30% grade phosphate rock has remained above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 CNY/ton, both remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Phosphate Fertilizer Export - The price gap between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers is widening, with export quotas being reduced compared to last year. The first batch of export quotas is concentrated in the peak period from May to September [3] - As of July 30, the price difference for monoammonium phosphate between the Baltic FOB price and the Hubei market price is approximately 1,707 CNY/ton, while the price difference for diammonium phosphate is about 1,451 CNY/ton [3] Group 4: Pesticide Industry - The pesticide sector is experiencing a downturn, with prices having dropped for over three years, with a decline of nearly two-thirds from peak levels. Current pesticide prices and stock prices are at relatively low levels [4] - Increased planting area in South America is driving up pesticide demand, with strong replenishment needs during the peak season due to previous low inventory strategies [4] - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery in prices driven by demand and anti-involution actions, as capital expenditure growth has turned negative for four consecutive quarters [4]