Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, focusing on inventory reduction and channel stability amidst challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue for H1 2025 to be between 2.4-2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3%-41.9% [1] - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 570-580 million yuan, down 23%-24% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 610-620 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 39%-40% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively reducing market supply of its products to stabilize channel profits, particularly for its flagship products, while focusing on enhancing sales of new products [1][2] - A new strategic flagship product, "Da Zhen," was launched at a price of 888 yuan to fill a market gap and target group purchases, which is expected to partially offset declines in main products [2] - The company is increasing investments in key regional markets such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong to strengthen its market position and competitiveness [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The company is recognized as a rare player in the sauce liquor market, ranking among the top three in Guizhou, with strong long-term growth potential [3] - The management team possesses extensive industry experience and marketing capabilities, which are expected to support future performance [3] - The product lineup is well-structured, with various price points and product types aimed at capturing market share during favorable industry conditions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is focusing on solidifying its market foundation and inventory reduction, with expectations for the new product "Da Zhen" to create new growth opportunities [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.34/0.35/0.39 yuan, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a target price of 10 HKD [4] - The company is maintaining a "strong buy" rating, indicating confidence in its strategic direction and market resilience [4]
珍酒李渡(06979.HK)2025年中报预告点评：加速出清 大珍发力