美债曲线结构形似零利率时代！市场真信了特朗普“降息至1%”口号？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure from the Trump administration to significantly lower interest rates to 1% [1][3] - Despite the Fed's current inaction, signs in the U.S. Treasury market suggest that a substantial rate cut may not be far-fetched during Trump's second term [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists have noted that the 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently overvalued compared to other maturities, with a yield of approximately 3.78%, which is high since early 2022 [1][3] Group 2 - The valuation of the 5-year Treasury bonds is primarily influenced by market assumptions regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts, with expectations for more cuts and deeper reductions since the beginning of the year [3] - The 5-year Treasury has been the best-performing maturity in the U.S. Treasury market this year, while persistent inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit exert upward pressure on long-term bond yields [3] - Since the end of last year, the yield on 5-year Treasury bonds has decreased by 60 basis points, while the 2-year yield has dropped by 52 basis points, and the 30-year yield has remained stable [3]