国金证券：预计将动用财政政策的储备空间，以弥补发放育儿补贴和养老服务消费补贴带来的收支缺口

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year are under pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. The government is expected to utilize fiscal policy reserves to cover the revenue gap caused by childcare and elderly service subsidies [1][5][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue and expenditure deviated slightly from the initial budget, with revenue falling short by 463 billion yuan and expenditure by 1309 billion yuan for the general public budget [2][6]. - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 6.9%. Local governments showed a revenue increase of 3.0% and expenditure increase of 3.7% [3][6]. - For the second half of the year, the expected year-on-year growth rates for the general public budget are -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure, leading to a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion yuan and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion yuan compared to the budget [5][11]. Budget Execution and Adjustments - Historically, the completion rate for the general public budget has been over 98%, and significant deviations typically necessitate budget adjustments or additional deficits. However, the flexibility of the special fund budget allows for a completion rate of 80%-90% without strict requirements [2][5]. - The government plans to cover the expected 1200 billion yuan revenue gap from subsidies without increasing the budget by utilizing reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises [11][12]. Central Financial Enterprises' Role - The profits from central financial enterprises are crucial for offsetting revenue shortfalls. In 2024, these enterprises contributed significantly to the budget, with non-tax revenue showing substantial increases in late 2024 [7][12]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 2739.22 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with plans to allocate 1000 billion yuan in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 1739.22 billion yuan [12].