长江证券：“反内卷”推升大宗价格的预期似有降温，但后续举措及其影响仍难被证伪

Economic Outlook - The industrial growth rate is projected to be +6.5% in August, slightly down from +6.7% in July, with previous months showing +6.8% in June, +5.8% in May, and +6.1% in April [1] - Investment growth is expected to be +2.5% in August, down from +2.6% in July, with a declining trend from +2.8% in June, +3.7% in May, and +4.0% in April [1] - Consumer growth is forecasted at 4.4% in August, unchanged from July, with previous months showing +4.8% in June, +6.4% in May, and +5.1% in April [1] - External demand is projected to be +5.5% in August, down from +5.8% in July, with previous months at +5.9% in June, +4.7% in May, and +8.1% in April [1] - Import growth is expected to remain at 0.8% in August, unchanged from July, with previous months showing +1.1% in June, -3.4% in May, and -0.3% in April [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decrease by -0.4% in August, down from -0.2% in July, with previous months at +0.1% in June, -0.1% in May, and -0.1% in April [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by -2.6% in August, an improvement from -3.3% in July, with previous months at -3.6% in June, -3.3% in May, and -2.7% in April [1] Monetary Policy - M2 money supply growth is expected to be 8.2% in August, unchanged from July, with previous months showing 8.3% in June, 7.9% in May, and 8.0% in April [1] - Social financing growth is projected at 9.0% in August, slightly down from 9.1% in July, with previous months at 8.9% in June, 8.7% in May, and 8.7% in April [1] External Factors - The uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs has decreased, but its impact on the global economy will manifest later [2] - China's exports are facing downward pressure, but the significant adjustment of the RMB's effective exchange rate will partially offset the impact of tariffs and external demand slowdown [2] - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in both volume and price, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [2] Policy Insights - The third quarter has shown a clear "economic observation period" characteristic, with fiscal spending having been front-loaded this year, but the intensity may weaken marginally going forward [3] - The decline in bill rates indicates a persistent lack of endogenous credit demand [3]