XIAOMI(HK:01810) Ge Long Hui·2025-08-07 02:39Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Xiaomi is expected to announce its Q2 performance on August 19, with overall performance aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal decline due to high base effects from Q1 [1] Financial Performance - Citigroup anticipates adjusted net profit to reach 10.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 68% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3% [1] - The quarter-on-quarter decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price and gross margin of smartphones, along with increased operating expenses [1] Business Segments - Xiaomi's total revenue and IoT (Internet of Things) and electric vehicle (EV) business revenues are expected to hit record highs [1] - Citigroup has lowered its smartphone shipment forecast for 2025-2026 by 2 million units and reduced gross margin forecasts by 0.5 percentage points [1] - Despite market concerns regarding price competition and reduced subsidy effects, Citigroup believes the fundamentals of Xiaomi's IoT business remain robust [1] - For the EV business, while there are concerns about the ramp-up of second-phase production capacity, Citigroup maintains its original forecasts, expecting continued upward trends in average selling price and gross margin [1] Investment Outlook - Citigroup has slightly adjusted its target price to 69 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating, asserting that the long-term growth logic remains unchanged [1] - Short-term catalysts include Q3 earnings guidance, expansion of EV second-phase production capacity, the launch of the Xiaomi 16 series, and the introduction of new electric vehicles [1]