美股涨势强到盖过衰退风险？高盛哀叹：押注熊市反而不理智了

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone indicates a 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession, yet global stock markets remain active, with U.S. stocks near historical highs [1] - The current market momentum is so strong that making bearish bets against the market seems irrational, despite signals of a slowing labor market [1] - Strong corporate earnings during the current earnings season and rising bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts contribute to the optimistic sentiment overshadowing concerns about tariffs [1] Group 2 - Swap traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over 100 basis points by mid-2026, leading to increased liquidity in the cash market [2] - Trend-following investors control a significant portion of the funds flowing into "hot" stocks, indicating a short-sighted market behavior [2] - The prevalence of short-term strategies in U.S. stocks and suppressed volatility suggest that the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term [2]